For the benefit of our clients and friends investing in European distressed opportunities, our European Network is sharing some current global developments.

Europe has struggled mightily during the last several years to triage a long series of critical blows to the economies of the 28 countries that comprise the European Union, as well as the collective viability of eurozone economies. Here we provide a snapshot of some recent developments regarding insolvency, restructuring, and related issues in the EU.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a wave of creditor schemes of arrangement ("schemes") and restructuring plans ("RPs") in the second half of 2020, which shows no sign of abating in 2021. For the uninitiated, the scheme (a long-established tool) and the newer RP process are court led UK restructuring options that a company can use to bind a minority of creditors into a restructuring. An RP can also be used to "cram down" an entire dissenting creditor class into a deal where certain conditions are met.

Regulatory capital requirements for prudentially supervised financial services companies across Europe are complex and changing rapidly. To keep track of the regulatory framework in the region, we have brought together the essential features of bank regulation in our EMEA Regulatory Capital wall chart.

HEADLINES

• In March 2020, credit insurer Euler Hermes forecast a 43% increase in insolvencies in the UK in 2021, as well as a 26% uptick in France and 12% in Germany
• By December 2020, ratings agency S&P was forecasting European defaults rising to as much as 8% by the end of 2021

There have been fewer European insolvencies and restructurings than anticipated during the COVID-19 pandemic, but distressed deal activity may accelerate as soon as economies are finally able to reopen.

Introduction

High yield bond and leveraged loan issuance for restructurings across the United States and Western and Southern Europe has climbed 65% year-on-year, up from US$29.1 billion for the first nine months of 2019 to US$48 billion over the same period this year.

A crisis far beyond anything experienced in recent memory

The way in which regulators, investors, banks and governments respond to the current sovereign debt challenges will echo for many years. Decisions made today will, for better or worse, continue to have consequences far beyond our current time horizon. Getting it right will not be easy.

Last Friday, in response to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), the German government announced various measures described as a big "bazooka" to avert a crisis in the Eurozone's largest economy. The German development bank KfW will play a key role in the context of the announced measures and has been tasked to provide liquidity assistance to German companies hit by the pandemic.

On 5 November 2013, the European Commission launched a consultation on its proposed new guidelines on State aid for rescuing and restructuring firms in difficulty (“the draft R&R guidelines”) which will replace the current R&R guidelines adopted in 2004. The revision of the 2004 guidelines was postponed a number of times as a result of the financial crisis, during which the Commission applied a special R&R regime for the financial sector. At the time, the Commission was still considering adopting new R&R rules applicable to both the financial sector and the real economy.