The question is no longer whether the volatility created by the COVID-19 pandemic will deepen the difficulties businesses and other institutions face in the coming months, but by how much and in what ways. In the past few weeks, we have offered client mailings and webinars on COVID-19-related topics, and we will work to keep you informed of important developments as these issues evolve. Included below are updates to our recent commentary, with answers to questions we have been receiving.

Corporate

Impact of COVID-19 on M&A

HEADLINES

• Default levels remain historically low at 1 per cent to 2 per cent
• Prevalence of cov-lite loans in Europe may be concealing some underperformance, but there are no conventional triggers for lenders to act

Despite concerns that the economic cycle is peaking, and the impact of geopolitical and trade volatility on corporate earnings, leveraged finance default rates show little sign of rising during the next 12 months.

A survey of recent rulings by judges from the bankruptcy courts for the Southern District of New York and the District of Delaware suggests that judges in these districts have very different views about the nature and extent of “consensual” third-party releases that may be approved in a given case. The data also indicates that their thinking on this issue continues to evolve as they confront new arguments.

A series of decisions over the past year — on issues such as make-whole premiums, intercreditor agreements, backstops for rights offerings and nonconsensual third-party releases — will likely have a significant impact in 2020 on parties involved in bankruptcy proceedings.

Fifth Circuit Reverses Course on the Enforceability of Make-Whole Premiums in Chapter 11

The number of corporate Chapter 11 filings in the United States remained relatively low in 2019. An estimated 6,000 business bankruptcies were filed (based on the data available at the time of writing), which, if it holds up as the data is finalized, is essentially flat from 2018 and down 56% from the peak reached in 2009, following the Great Recession. The chart immediately below depicts corporate Chapter 11 filing volume over time.

Despite the sector's current strong performance, many survey respondents believe the industry needs even more capital and liquidity. In addition, most expect restructurings and insolvencies to increase in 2020

The robust funding environment and expectations of increased investment reflect the aviation industry's strong aggregate performance. In large parts of the sector, both liquidity and capital remain unconstrained, not least in an era of historically low financing costs.

As we had anticipated in our prior client alerts,¹ the “customer” safe harbor defense to constructive fraudulent conveyance claims challenging securities transactions — which was flagged by the U.S.

With cov-lite financings at record highs, debt holders will need to be proactive in maximising recoveries

Will the last person leaving please turn out the lites?

Cov-lite loans can leave lenders with limited restructuring options, but creative lenders will still find ways to bring debtors to the table, partners Ian Wallace and Christian Pilkington of global law firm White & Case LLP explain

On 12 June 2019, after a tense meeting with landlords and creditors, the company voluntary arrangements (CVAs) proposed by the Arcadia Group Ltd (Arcadia) were approved by the requisite majority of creditors, allowing the group to restructure its balance sheet and stave off, at least for the time being, a liquidation or administration proceeding.

Arcadia's decline

The banking reform package marks an important step toward the completion of the European post-crisis regulatory reforms