The race to vaccinate Americans is likely to bring an end to the pandemic in the months ahead, but the outlook for the U.S. economy is far less certain. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Board delivered its Monetary Policy Report to Congress. While providing statistics suggesting that U.S. businesses could rebound when the pandemic ends, the report noted significant risks of business bankruptcies as well as a steep drop in commercial real estate prices.

The EMEA Determinations Committee's recent bankruptcy determination involving Selecta CDS provides additional insight on the types of chapter 15 filings that are likely to trigger Credit Events.

The torrid pace of bankruptcy filings by U.S. businesses has ebbs and flows, but the tide is not receding. The economy continues to struggle under the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic.

There has not been any substantial change in the fundamentals of the business cycle and Washington has been unable to produce another round of stimuli. So, we need to be careful about drawing conclusions from any short term variance in the rate of bankruptcy filings.

In Short

The Situation: On August 11, 2020, a Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee for EMEA ("DC") unanimously determined that the Chapter 15 filing by British retailer Matalan triggered a Bankruptcy Credit Event under standard credit default swaps ("CDS").

The Result: The DC's decision diverged from its only prior decision (involving Thomas Cook) on whether a Chapter 15 petition constituted a Bankruptcy Credit Event.

Since the end of the first quarter of 2020, bankruptcy professionals have been planning for a substantial increase in business bankruptcies. The newest statistics tell us that the wait is over. These bankruptcy filings follow the sustained economic contraction rooted in the COVID pandemic. But it would be too simplistic to say that COVID is the sole cause of this trend. Most of the businesses that have filed faced other challenges, such as heavy debt burdens, deteriorating markets or strategic missteps.

The number of so-called mega-bankruptcies filed during the first half of the year tells only part of the story. The pain is not just at the top, but spreads across multiple sectors of the economy. Overall, business bankruptcy filings are 30% higher than they have been at any time during the last 5 years. And, with attempts to re-start the economy already sputtering, the news during the second half could be worse.

For the benefit of our clients and friends investing in European distressed opportunities, our European Network is sharing some current developments.

Recent Developments

On February 1, 2017, the Supreme Court of Singapore and the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware announced that they had formally implemented Guidelines for Communication and Cooperation between Courts in Cross-Border Insolvency Matters (the "Guidelines"). The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York adopted the Guidelines on February 17, 2017.

The Act is a groundbreaking development in Singapore's corporate rescue laws and includes major changes to the rules governing schemes of arrangement, judicial management, and cross-border insolvency. The Act also incorporates several features of chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, including super-priority rescue financing, cram-down powers, and prepackaged restructuring plans. The legislation may portend Singapore's emergence as a center for international debt restructuring.

In Short:

The Action: Courts in Singapore and the states of New York and Delaware have formally implemented Guidelines for Communication and Cooperation between Courts in Cross-border Insolvency Matters.

The Motivation: The Guidelines were developed to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of cross-border insolvency proceedings and to encourage coordination and cooperation among relevant courts.

Looking Ahead: Expect the Guidelines to be implemented in other significant jurisdictions.