It’s a World of Inflation

From Melbourne to Manchester to Miami, people are struggling under the weight of hefty price increases for the things they buy each day, the New York Times reported. The worst spike in inflation that many advanced economies have seen in decades underscores the global forces driving prices higher, namely the disruptions set in motion by the coronavirus pandemic. The stakes are high for policymakers around the world, who are facing similar problems.

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Chile's economic activity index fell for the fourth consecutive month in May, the central bank said on Monday, underscoring the economic headwinds faced by the world's largest producer of copper amid high interest rates, Reuters reported. The IMACEC index, a close proxy of gross domestic product (GDP), dropped 2% in May from the same month last year, while slipping 0.5% when compared with the previous month. "The annual change in the IMACEC index was explained by a drop in mining and, to a lesser extent, in trade," the central bank said in a statement.
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Private economists in Brazil anticipate deeper monetary easing this year and improved inflation prospects until 2026 following the government's decision to maintain the country's inflation goal at 3%, a weekly central bank poll showed on Monday, Reuters reported. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has consistently blasted the country's central bank for keeping interest rates at a cycle-high of 13.75% even as inflation slows. During the first months of his administration, he also criticized inflation targets as too low, arguing that they led to an overly restrictive monetary policy.
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Inflation in Peru’s capital slowed sharply in June as its economy cooled more than initially expected due to political instability, Bloomberg News reported. Consumer prices in Lima in June rose 6.46% from a year earlier, compared to the 6.92% median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In May, annual inflation had reached 7.9%. Peru’s central bank uses the capital area as representative of inflation nationwide. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.15%, according to statistics agency INEI, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected prices to rise 0.2%.
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Negotiators representing Venezuela have held settlement talks with bondholders and creditors owed billions of dollars from defaults and expropriation claims, the head of a board supervising the country's foreign oil assets told Reuters. The talks have gained urgency as a federal court judge is to decide next month whether to kick off an auction of shares that could lead to the break-up of Citgo Petroleum, Venezuela's most prominent overseas asset. The U.S. has for years shielded Citgo from seizure under a license that will expire next month if not renewed.
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The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that Argentina is current in its payment obligations, and the government said it made a $2.7 billion payment to the fund using its existing stock of the IMF's reserve assets, and Chinese currency, Reuters reported. Argentina's economy ministry said through a spokesman the June payments were made "without using dollars" but the country's holdings of the fund's special-drawing rights (SDRs) and Chinese yuan. The operation, which depleted Argentina's $1.6 billion in SDRs, underscores how desperate the country's dollar position has become.
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Brazilian companies wrestling with high interest rates and growing debt loads are turning to the people who helped build them for a lifeline, Bloomberg News reported. Founders and key shareholders in Brazilian firms have committed to injecting as much as 19.3 billion reais ($4 billion) in capital to aid them so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rescues, which have come via equity offerings and real estate transactions, are expected to continue in months to come.
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Brazil’s upcoming decision on future inflation targets is likely to define whether the central bank may start cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting, Bloomberg News reported. Central bank President Roberto Campos Neto, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Planning Minister Simone Tebet will meet on Thursday to review the current 3% target for the next couple years and set a new one for 2026. They may also tweak the system, getting rid of specific objectives for each calendar year and introducing a constant, medium-term inflation goal.
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Brazil's delinquency rate reached its highest level in over five years in May, accompanied by a rise in average consumer interest rates, reflecting deteriorating credit conditions, according to data released by the central bank on Wednesday, Reuters reported. A broad measure of default rates for non-earmarked credit, encompassing both individuals and businesses, increased from 4.8% in April to 4.9% in May, the worst reading since February 2018. In May of last year, the delinquency rate stood at 3.7%.
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Brazil’s central bank said it may be able to start cutting interest rates in August after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and top members of his economic team demanded clarity about the timing of an expected monetary easing cycle, Bloomberg News reported. While policymakers hadn’t ruled out an August rate cut in a short statement issued together with their June 21 decision, the minutes of that meeting published on Tuesday were much more explicit about that possibility.
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