South America

Brazil's currency will likely enjoy some support in the near term from faster economic growth and progress on reforms, despite the prospect of less favorable interest rate spreads ahead, a Reuters poll showed, Reuters reported. The real appreciated last month to its firmest level in a year after several forecasts were improved and key fiscal changes proposed by the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made headway in congress. The real is seen gaining a further 0.6% in three months to 4.81 per U.S.

A pair of central bank decisions next week will shape the outlook for a wobbly global economy that the World Bank warns in a downbeat new assessment is battling stubbornly high inflation amid the pandemic’s aftermath and the war in Ukraine, the Washington Post reported. The gloomy forecast arrives days after one threat to global growth was eliminated when President Biden signed legislation Saturday to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avert a potentially catastrophic government default.

Argentina’s central bank expects to hold its benchmark interest rate at 97% through the August primary elections as officials estimate monthly inflation slowed in June, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg News reported. Central bank officials expect monthly price increases slowed to less than 7% last month, justifying the rate hike pause, according to the people, who asked not to be named to discuss upcoming policy decisions.

From Melbourne to Manchester to Miami, people are struggling under the weight of hefty price increases for the things they buy each day, the New York Times reported. The worst spike in inflation that many advanced economies have seen in decades underscores the global forces driving prices higher, namely the disruptions set in motion by the coronavirus pandemic. The stakes are high for policymakers around the world, who are facing similar problems.