Economics says it’s way past time for the International Monetary Fund to pull the plug on Argentina. Geopolitics helps explain why it hasn’t — yet, Bloomberg News reported. Over the past five years, the Fund has lent $43 billion in repeated bailouts for the Latin American nation — multiples more cash than anyone else has gotten — with dismal results. On the eve of a pivotal presidential vote, Argentina has 124% inflation and its economy is in deep recession again. The latest IMF program, like so many predecessors, has essentially collapsed.
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Brazilian auto exports are set to plunge by double digits in 2023 when compared with the previous year, automaker association Anfavea said on Friday, as a severe economic crisis in neighboring Argentina hits shipments to that country, Reuters reported. The association said in a statement it now projects exports to fall 12.7% in 2023 to 420,000 vehicles, a major cut from its previous estimate of a 2.9% drop in the period. "Exports have been the major warning point for the automotive sector in the first nine months of the year," it said.
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Argentina's central bank is set to leave its interest rate unchanged at 118% at the directors meeting scheduled for later Thursday, an official source at the bank said, Reuters reported. Argentina is struggling to tamp down on triple-digit inflation as presidential elections loom just several weeks away. The central bank held the rate at 118% last month after raising it from 97% in the aftermath of a shock primary election which saw radical libertarian Javier Milei become the favorite to win the presidency this month. Annual inflation is running at 124%.
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Chilean President Gabriel Boric embarks on his first trip to China with an ambitious agenda that seeks deals to make the country’s economy more efficient and help it develop beyond its traditional commodities exporter role, Bloomberg News reported. “We want to move toward a new stage that includes investments in the country that help us improve productivity,” Chile International Economic Relations Undersecretary Claudia Sanhueza said in an interview ahead of Boric’s first trip to the Asian country next week.
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Brazil is bringing an urgent message to next week’s meetings of the International Monetary Fund: Western-backed lenders must give developing nations more say if they want to remain relevant, Bloomberg News reported. A major redistribution of IMF quotas to correct the underrepresentation of large emerging-market economies has been a decades-old demand from Brazil and other key developing countries, but the price of inaction is growing higher, according to Tatiana Rosito, international affairs secretary at the Brazilian Finance Ministry.
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Industrial production in Brazil rose slightly less than expected in August, data from government statistics agency IBGE showed on Tuesday, as the sector struggles to gather speed amid high interest rates, Reuters reported. Output was up 0.4% in August from July, IBGE said, recovering part of the losses seen a month earlier but below forecasts as the median estimate in a Reuters poll projected an increase of 0.5%.
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Brazil’s Senate approved legislation to limit the growth of credit card debt to 100% of its original amount, an attempt to cap interest rates that currently average nearly 450%, Bloomberg News reported. Lawmakers passed the bill by acclamation Monday, a day before the expiration of a provisional measure that included the cap. The lower house of congress approved the bill in September, meaning it is now on track to become law. Once it is enacted, credit card issuers will have 90 days to submit their own regulatory proposal that will need authorization from Brazil’s national monetary council.
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Chile’s economic activity posted its biggest monthly drop since May as services declined, pushing one of Latin America’s richest nations toward recession and paving the way for more big interest rate cuts, Bloomberg News reported. The Imacec index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.5% in August from July, compared to the median estimate for a 0.2% gain from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It matched the 0.5% decline recorded in May. From a year prior, the index dropped 0.9%, the central bank reported on Monday.
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Brazil's jobless rate dropped for the fifth consecutive rolling quarter in the three months ended in August, reaching its lowest since early 2015 as the labor market in Latin America's largest economy continues to show resilience, Reuters reported. The unemployment rate reached 7.8% in the quarter through August, statistics agency IBGE said on Friday, in line with market expectations and down from the 7.9% seen in the previous rolling quarter.
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Annual inflation in Peru decelerated to 5.04% in September to hit its lowest level in more than two years, according to official figures published on Sunday, though consumer prices remained some way above the central bank's target rate, Reuters reported. Data from national statistics agency INEI showed the key index based on the metropolitan region of Lima slowed to its lowest level since August 2021, when it stood at 4.95%. On a month-to-month basis the Lima Consumer Price Index, Peru's inflation benchmark, inched up 0.02% in September, well below the 0.38% increase in August.
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