A recent run on the peso is pushing inflation ever higher. Prices could rise by as much as 30 per cent this year — or about triple the rate that President Mauricio Macri was hoping for in 2018. But for most Argentines, this is business as usual, the Financial Times reported. With the exception of a currency board experiment in the 1990s that ended with a disastrous financial crash in 2001, Argentines have lived with punishingly high inflation for longer than most can remember.
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Signs are mounting that Argentina is headed toward recession in the next few months, less than two years after emerging from the latest one, Bloomberg News reported. A severe drought and currency crisis shook Latin America’s third-largest economy just as President Mauricio Macri sought to consolidate its incipient recovery. Economic activity fell 2.7 percent in April, the largest monthly decline since Macri took office in December 2015. Growth also declined on an annual basis for the first time in 14 months, the nation’s statistics agency reported Tuesday.
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A 200 basis-point increase in interest rates could spark a sharp rise in the proportion of emerging market corporate debt issues at risk of default, with Brazilian and Indian firms most vulnerable, a report from McKinsey Global Institute showed. Following a decade of loose monetary policy and historically low interest rates aimed at boosting economic growth after the 2008-9 financial crisis, global central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are either raising interest rates or signalling an end to accommodative policies, Reuters reported.
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A consortium led by top oil trader Vitol has entered exclusive talks to acquire stakes in Nigerian offshore fields that are held by Brazil’s Petrobras and its partners, industry sources said, Reuters reported. The assets are estimated to be worth up to $2.5 billion, the two banking sources and one industry source told Reuters. The buyers are talking to state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA, known as Petrobras, which is leading the sale, the sources added.
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Argentina’s central bank is getting a new chief after the monetary authority failed to stop the peso’s plunge despite obtaining the biggest loan in the history of the International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg News reported. Luis Caputo, previously the finance minister, will take over the post following Federico Sturzenegger’s surprise resignation. Investors need him to lay out a strategy to curb volatility in the currency, which has lost more than a quarter of its value since the end of April, including a selloff of more than 6 percent Thursday that left it at a record low.
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Markets welcomed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) $50 billion rescue stabilization package last week, which seems to be stabilizing the peso. But the financial umbrella will be costly, a Bloomberg View reported. Rightly or wrongly, Argentines blame the IMF for precipitating their country's worst economic crisis. In the eyes of many voters, the mere association will damage President Mauricio Macri’s standing.
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If you are going to go, go big, and get on with it. This advice applies widely, if not universally. Certainly it fits economic interventions. Argentina and the IMF, thankfully, have followed it. The IMF’s financing deal for Argentina, a country facing a falling currency and brutal inflation, was expected to take about six weeks to agree; it took a month, the Financial Times reported. Speculation pegged the value of the package at $30bn or so; it came in at $50bn. The market’s initial response to the surprise has been positive. Argentine bonds rallied on Friday morning.
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The International Monetary Fund came to Argentina’s rescue on Thursday with a standby arrangement worth $50bn over three years, far more than envisaged by markets which are expected to welcome the move. The loan is subject to approval from the IMF board, the Financial Times reported. Its size surprised local media which had speculated would be closer to $30bn. “I thought it was going to be big but this far exceeds expectations.
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When Pedro Parente quit last week as chief of executive of Brazil’s state-controlled Petrobras, Latin America’s largest oil company, he used his resignation to lament his countrymen’s apparent disdain for market dynamics, the Financial Times reported. Mr Parente, a champion of free-market policies, resigned after the Brazilian government gave in to truckers whose strike against an increase in fuel prices brought Brazil’s economy to its knees for 10 days.
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