Colombia is on track for its widest fiscal deficit since the Covid-19 pandemic as falling tax revenues leave a hole in the nation’s finances, Bloomberg News reported. The government said Friday it will target a 2024 deficit of 5.6% of gross domestic product this year, from a previous target of 5.3%. The peso and local currency bonds have dropped in recent days as nervous investors ditch the nation’s assets amid concerns over the ballooning fiscal deficit. The government will trim its 2024 budget by 20 trillion pesos ($5 billion), Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla said.
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Millions of Colombians will need to pay two new fees on their pension savings according to latest draft of the pension bill sent to the Lower House on Friday, Bloomberg News reported. Lawmakers modified the bill to allow fund managers to charge a fee of as much as 2% on profits, while also retaining a controversial annual fee of up to 0.7% on assets under management. Currently, so-called obligatory pension funds charge a fee upfront, but nothing after that. Congress defied calls by President Gustavo Petro to push more savings automatically into the public system.
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Colombia’s central bank lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 11.75%, defying calls from the government for a deeper cut to boost economic growth, Bloomberg News reported. Five of the seven-member board backed the decision, Governor Leonardo Villar told reporters in Bogota. One argued for a deeper reduction, of three quarters of a percentage point, while another called for a full percentage point cut.
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Colombia is trying to cut interest rates at a pace that won’t surprise markets, trigger destabilizing capital outflows or jeopardize the aim of hitting the inflation target range by mid-2025, the head of the central bank said, Bloomberg News reported. The fastest consumer price rises among peers, and above-target inflation expectations are “elements of concern” that call for prudence from policymakers, Governor Leonardo Villar said. But if the inflation outlook brightens the bank might accelerate the pace of monetary easing.
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The socialist government of Venezuela is discussing compensation with at least two Colombian companies whose assets were seized under late President Hugo Chávez, Bloomberg News reported. Colombia’s largest cement maker, Cementos Argos SA, is in talks involving the possible takeover of a state-owned cement plant near Venezuela’s Caribbean coast, according to German Umaña, Colombia’s minister of commerce, trade and tourism. An expropriated subsidiary of Cali-based sugar exporter Comercializadora Internacional de Azúcares y Mieles, Ciamsa, is also in negotiations for compensation, Umaña said.
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Colombia’s slowing inflation and weak economy call for more aggressive interest rate cuts, though policymakers must remain vigilant to potential risks ahead, according to a member of the central bank’s board, Bloomberg News reported. The fact that inflation has been above target for the past three years demands prudence, even after it eased in February to the slowest pace in nearly two years, central bank co-director Bibiana Taboada said in an interview.
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Colombia’s economy grew even slower than the central bank’s gloomy forecast last year, potentially opening the door to faster interest rate cuts, Bloomberg News reported. Gross domestic product rose 0.6% in 2023 from a year earlier, the national statistics agency said Thursday, lagging the bank’s forecast of a 1% expansion. Excluding the Covid-19 crisis, that was the worst result since 1999. The economy expanded 0.3% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, below the 0.8% median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
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Colombia maintained the pace of monetary policy easing with a second straight quarter-point cut to interest rates as consumer price increases remain above target and inflationary threats abound, Bloomberg News reported. The central bank cut its key rate to 12.75%, Governor Leonardo Villar told reporters in Bogota on Wednesday. Ten of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg correctly forecast the move, while 15 expected a half-point cut and one a cut to 12.25%. The board voted 5-2 for the 25 basis-point cut, with the minority favoring a larger half-point reduction.
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Colombia’s economy grew at its fastest pace in nine months in November, beating all forecasts and calming fears of a recession, Bloomberg News reported. The ISE economic activity index, a proxy for gross domestic product, rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the statistics agency reported Thursday. That was its first expansion in four months, and exceeded all 15 forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Agriculture, oil and mining, government services and the financial sector led the expansion, while manufacturing and construction contracted.
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Colombia President Gustavo Petro has proposed lowering the country’s corporate tax rate and increasing income taxes for its highest earners, Bloomberg News reported. The move, which he has not yet detailed, would allow companies to grow and make the tax system more just, he said in a post on X on Saturday. Petro also spoke in broad terms about the tax reform proposal in remarks broadcast Friday after he announced that the government will increase the minimum wage by 12% next year.