Ukraine

Ukraine could be forced to restructure or reissue its debt if further devolution of its provinces takes place, according to a new report, Forbes reported. Today Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Vadim Khramov outlined a range of separation scenarios and their likely impact on the Ukrainian economy and, consequently, bonds. In his base case, Ukraine is pressured into deep constitutional reform which could lead to a more federal and decentralized Ukraine without formal separation.

The International Monetary Fund's executive board is tentatively scheduled to consider a $17 billion bailout for Ukraine on April 30, two people familiar with the matter said Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported. IMF staff are currently verifying Kiev's interim government has met the fund's preconditions for the emergency loan. The expected IMF approval next week would unlock another $10 billion in aid promised by the U.S. and Europe for the beleaguered country.

Kiev must impose tough reforms and austerity, otherwise even with billions of dollars of aid Ukraine will default in 2014, the coup-imposed Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warns. It comes after the IMF agreed a bailout package worth up to $18 billion, RT.com reported. “Our forecast predicts a 3 percent drop in GDP, provided we pass the stabilization package of laws the government proposes. If the laws are not passed, we forecast a default, and a 10 percent drop in GDP,” Yatsenyuk told the parliament on Thursday.

The International Monetary Fund is expected to announce a rescue package for Ukraine of about $15bn as early as Thursday in hopes that the initial aid payments could be made by the end of April, according to officials involved in the negotiations, the Financial Times reported. The programme, which will come in a traditional IMF bailout known as a “standby arrangement”, is being rushed to the fund’s board because of concerns Kiev is running out of foreign currency reserves.

Ukraine’s economic and political crisis may be heating up, but Kiev still has enough emergency cash reserves to cover its obligations for the next two months, The Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics blog reported. But what would it take to push the country into default? Tensions escalating over Russia’s Crimea incursion, Moscow increasing natural gas prices and any delay in international bailout talks, say economists. “The military stand-off heightens Ukraine’s risk of default,” says Lilit Gevorgyan, a senior sovereign risk analyst at the IHS consultancy, in a research note.

OAO Gazprom’s threat to end natural gas discounts for Ukraine adds to the financial burden on the near-bankrupt government in Kiev and makes Europe’s energy supply part of the escalating crisis, Bloomberg News reported. Russia’s gas-export monopoly said on March 1 it may end last year’s agreement to supply Ukraine at a cheaper rate unless it’s paid $1.55 billion owed for fuel. It’s the first time since the otherthrow of pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych last month that Russia has directly used its position as Ukraine’s dominant energy supplier to pressure the new regime.

Ukrainian officials today notified the International Monetary Fund of the country’s request for financial support, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said in a statement, the Irish Times reported. “We are ready to respond and, in the coming days, will send an IMF fact-finding team to Kiev to undertake a preliminary dialogue with the authorities,” Ms Lagarde said in a statement.

Ukraine is weighing measures to stem cash withdrawals after as much as 7 percent of deposits were taken from banks during last week’s bloody uprising, underscoring the need for action to fend off a default, Bloomberg News reported. Withdrawals peaked with as much as 30 billion hryvnias ($3.1 billion) Feb. 18-20 as police and anti-government demonstrators fought in the center of Kiev, Natsionalnyi Bank Ukrainy Governor Stepan Kubiv, 51, appointed Feb. 24, said yesterday in his first interview.

There is a small risk that Ukraine may default on $3 billion in Eurobonds that Russia recently acquired, Russia's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak said on Tuesday. "We probably have risks, but not so big ones," he said. "It's possible to begin with the fact that the debtor has a difficult financial situation, that it can't return the money to us in two years." Storchak added that while the possibility existed of substituting one instrument for another, he was opposed to including Ukraine's debt to Russia in a general restructuring. "This wouldn't be right.

Poland’s prime minister said Tuesday he’s concerned that if given money now Ukraine would use it to pay the debts it owes to Russia rather than to initiate reforms as it seeks to build a new system of government, The Wall Street Journal Emerging Europe blog reported. “There’s concern the money that would be given to Ukraine now would go through it as a transit country. It would be ironic if Europe and the West helped only to see this money paying debts owed to Russia. Debts must be paid, of course, but this is not why we want to organize help for Ukraine,” Donald Tusk told reporters.