Sovereign default risks are on course to rise further in 2021, with Iraq, Sri Lanka, Angola and Gabon at high probability of default, say Goldman Sachs analysts, Reuters reported. Five sovereign debt defaults or distressed debt exchanges - in which investors swap their debt for new bonds, often with longer maturities and a reduced value - have already happened in 2020 in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, the most in around two decades.
A would-be hub of Indo-Pacific commerce and global tourist gem, Sri Lanka was already struggling to deliver on grand visions before the coronavirus crisis struck the world economy, Bloomberg News reported. The next few months may determine its ability to avert a painful debt restructuring. The South Asian nation is locked in talks with the International Monetary Fund for emergency-financing aid, after its second longer-term program with the fund in less than a decade expired last Tuesday.
Sri Lanka’s finances were fragile long before the coronavirus delivered its blow, but unless the country can secure aid from allies like China, economists say it may have to make a fresh appeal to the IMF or default on its debt, Reuters reported. All the tell-tale crisis signs are there: a tumbling currency, credit rating downgrades, bonds at half their face value, debt-to-GDP levels above 90% and almost 70% of government revenues being spent on interest payments alone.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating, citing political upheaval that has resulted in the country having no functional government, the International New York Times reported on an Associated Press story. Fitch says it lowered the country's rating to B from B plus with a stable outlook, reflecting heightened external financing risks, uncertain policy outlook and a slowdown in fiscal consolidation.
Sri Lanka's largest party warned Tuesday that the island could default on its debt as Moody's slashed its credit rating and a bitter power struggle dragged into a fourth week, Daily Mail reported. The South Asian nation has been gripped by an unprecedented political crisis since the president sacked his prime minister on October 26 and appointed former strongman Mahinda Rajapakse in his place. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the ousted premier and leader of the United National Party -- the largest single party in parliament -- refused to step down, declaring his sacking illegal.