Our last newsletter commented on high inflation, dwindling business confidence and international supply chain issues. Those factors continue to influence the economic outlook, with some businesses unable to survive the strengthening head winds impacting the economy. The consumer price index increased 7.2 percent in the 12 months to December 2022, remaining stubbornly high despite significant movements in the official cash rate to 4.5%, up significantly from the 0.25% it was sitting at in October 2021. ANZ's economic forecast warns that a "policy induced recession is looming".

Since our last newsletter, Russia's war in Ukraine rumbles on, domestic inflation hits new highs and there are signs of an increase in activity in the insolvency market. Russians unlawful assault on Ukraine continues unabated, as we enter the European summer months, and the fourth month of the invasion. Besides the utter devastation inflicted on the people and infrastructure of Ukraine, the war is having a significant impact on both global food and oil prices.

We open the year with several events of major significance. The unlawful invasion of Ukraine by Russia is justifiably dominating the news cycle, with harrowing images of the impact of Russia's indiscriminate military bombardment on Ukrainian cities and towns. The invasion will have a substantial impact on the global economy. The conflict is also highly likely to have implications for our own domestic markets despite the geographical distance between us. Local sharemarkets have been volatile and oil prices have spiked in the last week.