Germany is experiencing a severe energy crisis due to the Ukraine conflict and its effect on the supply of natural gas. Energy intensive companies have seen a dramatic increase in energy costs, irrecoverable from consumers, causing grave financial distress in various German industries. As a result, the German government plans to modify the German Insolvency Code (InsO) on a temporary basis. 

Background 

In 2021, the German legislator changed the rules of conduct by inserting a further section into the German Insolvency Code (InsO).

Background

Pre-packaged administration sales (where a sale of key assets is agreed prior to the appointment of administrators and then implemented by the administrators immediately following their appointment), have been a widely-used and highly successful tool to rescue businesses, or parts of businesses, that may otherwise have languished in administration interminably.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a wave of creditor schemes of arrangement ("schemes") and restructuring plans ("RPs") in the second half of 2020, which shows no sign of abating in 2021. For the uninitiated, the scheme (a long-established tool) and the newer RP process are court led UK restructuring options that a company can use to bind a minority of creditors into a restructuring. An RP can also be used to "cram down" an entire dissenting creditor class into a deal where certain conditions are met.

HEADLINES

• In March 2020, credit insurer Euler Hermes forecast a 43% increase in insolvencies in the UK in 2021, as well as a 26% uptick in France and 12% in Germany
• By December 2020, ratings agency S&P was forecasting European defaults rising to as much as 8% by the end of 2021

There have been fewer European insolvencies and restructurings than anticipated during the COVID-19 pandemic, but distressed deal activity may accelerate as soon as economies are finally able to reopen.

High yield bond and leveraged loan issuance for restructurings across the United States and Western and Southern Europe has climbed 65% year-on-year, up from US$29.1 billion for the first nine months of 2019 to US$48 billion over the same period this year.

Where the law to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in civil, insolvency and criminal proceedings (COVInsAG) is concerned, the German Parliament has introduced rules regarding the suspension of a managing director’s obligation to file for insolvency. It has also issued important statements regarding the liability of managing directors and the legal position of new loans, especially shareholder loans.

In the event that the obligation to file for insolvency is suspended:

HEADLINES

• Default levels remain historically low at 1 per cent to 2 per cent
• Prevalence of cov-lite loans in Europe may be concealing some underperformance, but there are no conventional triggers for lenders to act

Despite concerns that the economic cycle is peaking, and the impact of geopolitical and trade volatility on corporate earnings, leveraged finance default rates show little sign of rising during the next 12 months.