1. State of the Restructuring Market

1.1 Market Trends and Changes

State of the Restructuring and Insolvency Market

There were 27,359 insolvencies in France as of the end of September 2021, down 25.1% from the same period in 2020, and down 47.9% from September 2019. Such reduction is relatively stable across all sectors, including those most severely affected by the health-related restrictions, such as accommodation and food services (down 44.2% year-on-year) and trade (down 28.1% year on year).

Fewer Insolvencies for More Opportunities

At the end of 2021, corporate bankruptcies (for most company sizes and in most sectors) were at their lowest level compared to the pre-COVID-19 figures from 2019, with a 50% drop in insolvency proceedings and a 10% decrease in pre-insolvency situations. This was largely due to the temporary impact of government emergency measures and support, including:

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruption across the globe, resulting in a significant uptick in U.S. restructuring activity. According to AACER, a database of U.S. bankruptcy statistics, an estimated 7,128 business bankruptcies were filed in 2020, representing a 29% increase over the same period last year. Although Chapter 11 filings increased in 2020, many experts believe we have yet to see the full extent of the surge in filings that will occur in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis.

The number of corporate Chapter 11 filings in the United States remained relatively low in 2019. An estimated 6,000 business bankruptcies were filed (based on the data available at the time of writing), which, if it holds up as the data is finalized, is essentially flat from 2018 and down 56% from the peak reached in 2009, following the Great Recession. The chart immediately below depicts corporate Chapter 11 filing volume over time.

In 2017, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit held in In re MPM Silicones, LLC that the appropriate interest rate for replacement notes issued to secured creditors under a “cramdown” Chapter 11 plan must be a market rate if an “efficient market” exists. If no such market exists, however, the formula rate (effectively, the prime rate plus 1-3 percent) must be applied.

Continuing low interest rates and generally improved economic conditions in the U.S. and worldwide during 2017 have reduced financial distress and the need for business bankruptcies in most sectors. However, out-of-court financial restructurings and Chapter 11 bankruptcies will continue in 2018 due to significant market changes in the energy, retail and health care industries that have developed over the past several years.