This year was set up for disappointment in restructuring activity, given high levels of Chapter 11 filings and debt defaults in 2023 — especially in 1H23 — as well as the resurgence of leverage credit issuance since late 2023 that has allowed many distressed companies to address near-term debt maturities or liquidity challenges without a formal restructuring event. Restructuring activity in 2024 is almost certain to come up short of last year’s high bar; the only question is by how much.

Anyone working in the restructuring profession undoubtedly has encountered the ominous term “debt maturity wall” in relevant business articles and industry publications. Much like other feared apparitions such as the Loch Ness monster and Sasquatch, the maturity wall is visible at great distance but never up close. Similarly, these sightings are episodic and the evidence of their very existence is flimsy, yet they remain fixed in the public’s mind. What keeps them going? The possibility that they are real.

It is impossible to reflect on the current state of the U.S. economy without recognizing how off the mark recession calls have been since 2022. It was only a year ago that two-thirds of economists regularly polled by Bloomberg expected a U.S. recession within a year. Even today that percentage is still a lofty 30%, though scant evidence of an impending downturn is found in macroeconomic data or in plain sight, notwithstanding the weaker-than-expected advance GDP report for 1Q24. It’s not just economists who have been errant in this call.

This might be the most confounding economy in memory, one that refuses to conform to any predictable script or playbook — just ask Fed Chair Powell, who continues the central bank’s yearlong efforts to slow an economy that won’t easily be tamed. But if you mention to someone outside of the restructuring profession that you’re a corporate bankruptcy advisor, the response you are likely to hear is something to the effect of, “Oh, business must be good these days.”

The sudden and spectacular failure of three regional banks within a week has pushed all other business stories off the front pages and has financial markets anxiously asking where the fallout stops. As unique as the underlying causes of each failure were, at their core these were all good old-fashioned bank runs triggered by liquidity issues.

We can’t recall another new year beginning with such negative sentiment and low expectations for the domestic economy as 2023, with the lone exception of 2009 during the global financial crisis. A mild U.S. recession beginning later in 2023 is now the consensus expectation while inflation remains well above the Fed’s target despite seven rate hikes to date and the highest interest rates in 15 years.¹

The war in Ukraine is now in its fourth month with no visible end in sight to the hostilities and little prospect that the disruptive global economic impacts of the war will dissipate anytime soon. On the contrary, a new $40 billion weapons and aid package to Ukraine by the United States, coupled with 20 other nations pledging further security assistance for Ukraine, and Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO have further ratcheted up tensions between Russia and the Western Alliance nations.