The US appears likely to enter a default cycle in the near future, according to senior fund managers and economists. A recent bout of M&A transactions involving chapter 11 cases point in the same direction. Taking deals involving bankruptcy cases as a proxy for distressed M&A, 16 such transactions were announced in the US in Q1, up 14.3 percent year on year, according to Dealogic. The aggregate value of those deals reached US$1.8 billion, a gain of 76 percent from the same period in 2023.

The COVID-19 pandemic shook the global real estate and hospitality industry as lockdowns were put in place across the globe. The sudden and unexpected lack of footfall caused revenues in physical centers such as restaurants, shopping malls and hotels to plummet, compounding existing structural inefficiencies and accelerating the speed of change for many businesses.