Venezuela

Traders reduced their bets on a default of Venezuela’s dollar debt over the next year amid a thin repayment schedule in the first quarter, Bloomberg News reported. The implied probability of nonpayment over the next 12 months plunged to 44 percent in January from 59 percent at the end of December, according to credit-default swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the first time the risk of default has been below 50 percent since September. The longer-term outlook is still a little murky, with the odds of a credit event over the next five years at 89 percent.

A thousand abandoned concrete huts dot a plain beneath a remote mountain range here in western Venezuela, surrounded by empty, rusting silos and irrigation canals covered with weeds. This is the Diluvio agro-industrial commune, built with $2 billion of Venezuelan capital by Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht SA, which last month admitted to giving out almost $800 million in bribes to secure contracts in 12 countries, including Venezuela.

Carrying trash bags and backpacks filled with cash, Venezuelans fretfully lined up on Friday outside banks across the country to exchange currency that President Nicolás Maduro said would soon be void. Mr. Maduro’s decision that all 100-bolívar notes must be exchanged has caused panic, partly because the deadline keeps shifting and many banks and businesses are already refusing to accept them. For many people without bank accounts, the bills, which have long been the country’s highest-denomination note, are their primary means of saving money.

Venezuelans desperately rushed to banks Tuesday to dump cash after the government announced it is eliminating the largest circulating bank note to combat contraband in a country whipsawed by the world’s deepest recession and highest inflation, The Wall Street Journal reported. In the financial district of downtown Caracas, National Guard troops carrying assault rifles stood outside banks as crowds of people lined up to deposit stacks of 100-bolivar bills, which President Nicolás Maduro said Monday would become void on Wednesday night.

Venezuela, which has the largest crude reserves on the planet, has defied predictions of default since the oil collapse started in 2014, and analysts are split as to how long the nation of 30 million can hold out. With that in mind, Bloomberg is taking a close look each month at some of the key components that may determine its fate. After weeks of tense negotiations, state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela said last week that creditors holding $2.8 billion of bonds that come due over the next year agreed to extend maturities.

Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy has been hit by falling oil prices and what critics say is government mismanagement of state resources, reports Anatoly Kurmanaev, The Wall Street Journal Energy Journal blog reported. Oil accounts for 96% of the Latin American country’s exports. Venezuela’s crude production was 2.3 million barrels a day in September, 11% lower than a year earlier, according to government figures, and the consulting firm Medley & Associates expects the fall to accelerate in the next 12 months.

To most investors, Venezuela looks less like a market than a mess. The IMF expects output to shrink by 10% this year and inflation to exceed 700%, The Economist reported. As the bolívar’s value has plunged, multinational firms have announced billions of dollars of write-downs. For much of this year, however, some strong-stomached investors have scented an opportunity. They rushed to buy bonds issued by the government and by the state-owned oil company, PDVSA. They have been rewarded handsomely.

Venezuela's government-run oil giant -- the country's largest source of cash -- is warning that it could default on its bonds as early as next week, CNN reported. Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA, failed to get investors to agree on a deal to push back debt payments by three years. The company said it is extending its deadline for a third time so investors can accept a deal by Friday night. This time, it warned that things could get messy.

Venezuela’s state-owned oil company offered an improved deal to bondholders as it seeks to push back debt payments coming due this year and next, Bloomberg News reported today. Petroleos de Venezuela SA said that it will pay investors as much as 1.22 times the face value of the notes they hold in exchange for longer-maturity securities, after offering no price premium in a proposal Sept. 16. While the original swap offer was for $7.1 billion of bonds, PDVSA said yesterday that it wouldn’t swap more than $5.325 billion of securities.

Venezuela’s petroleum industry, whose vast revenues once fueled the country’s Socialist-inspired revolution, underwriting everything from housing to education, is spiraling into disarray, the International New York Times reported. To add insult to injury, the Venezuelan government has been forced to turn to its nemesis, the United States, for help.