Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of backing down in a standoff with the U.S. that rattled markets. As investors worry about Turkey sliding toward a full-blown financial crisis, the big question now is how far the pain may spread, Bloomberg News reported. “I call out to those in the United States. It is a shame. You are trading a strategic NATO ally for a pastor,” Erdogan said Saturday during a rally in the Black Sea port of Ordu, referring to the U.S. decision to sanction Turkey for its imprisonment of an American priest.
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The longer Turkish policy makers wait to stem the lira’s precipitous slide, the bigger the toll on the already fragile economy, Bloomberg News reported. The cost of insuring the nation’s debt against default climbed to a nine-year high as an almost 30 percent plunge in the exchange rate in 2018 threatens the finances of local firms that have gorged on foreign-currency loans. Turkish companies have foreign-exchange liabilities equal to about a third of the country’s gross domestic product, posing a serious threat to banks if the currency depreciation isn’t contained.
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Investors are watching closely to see whether Turkish banks will maintain access to the foreign funding they need to keep economic activity humming, as the economy is battered by U.S. sanctions, rating cuts, concern about a looming fine on a state bank and a plunging lira, Bloomberg News reported. Turkish lenders have a good record of foreign borrowing even at the height of a financial crisis and are strong enough to weather a slowdown, according to bank executives.
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As the plunging lira weighs on Turkish borrowers, the nation’s banks are proposing a quicker way of resolving loans that turn sour, Bloomberg News reported. In what would be the first such codified rules, the Banks Association of Turkey, which represents non-Islamic lenders, drew up a framework of principles for restructuring loans that exceed 50 million lira ($10.2 million), according to a copy of the document obtained by Bloomberg News. TBB, as the industry group is known, declined to comment.
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Steve Eisman, who predicted the collapse of subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis, is betting that Turkey’s economic troubles will also be a drag on two major European banks, Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and Italy’s UniCredit SpA, Bloomberg News reported. “Everybody likes me to call the next disaster," Eisman said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, before being asked about pockets of risk where he sees opportunities.
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Turkey’s banks are about to reveal the extent of the damage caused by the lira’s plunge and a surge in interest rates. As the country’s biggest lenders start reporting second-quarter results this week, investors will be scouring their balance sheets for clues into how they’re coping from a 22 percent slide in the currency this year that is knocking the ability of companies to repay their foreign debt, Bloomberg News reported. They’ll also be looking for signs on whether the highest borrowing costs in almost a decade have started to cool the economy.
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Confronted with a plunging lira, Turkey’s central bank last month urged the general public to borrow in the currency in which they are paid. That warning came too late for the country’s energy companies, Bloomberg News reported. Turkish power producers are emerging as one of the biggest risks to the nation’s banks after they plowed billions of dollars into new power generation, distribution projects and deals over the past 15 years.
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Turkey’s Bereket Enerji group has put power plants on sale as part of plans to refinance and pay down its debts, joining other Turkish power companies that are renegotiating their foreign-currency loans with lenders, seven people with knowledge of the plan said, Bloomberg News reported.
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The battered Turkish lira has enjoyed a period of relative tranquility over the past two weeks. An emergency interest rate hike and soothing noises from senior officials appeared to calm nerves following a prolonged game of brinkmanship between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and international investors that drove the currency to record lows, the Financial Times reported. But the problems have not gone away. Figures released on Monday showed a sharp rise in inflation.
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