Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has found a benefactor to help pull Turkey from the brink of a financial crisis as Qatar promised to invest $15 billion in the country, Bloomberg News reported. The lira extended gains to 6 percent after Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Bin Al Thani made the pledge after a 3-1/2-hour meeting with Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday. It follows a string of urgent steps Erdogan has taken to protect its economy from an escalating feud with U.S. counterpart Donald Trump over an American pastor held in Turkey.
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Investors are fretting about emerging markets again. Turkey is the front-burner concern at the moment, but what really is getting people’s attention is the prospect that the financial problems there could spread to other fast-growing but risky countries, the International New York Times reported. If history is any indication, that has the potential to quickly turn a local crisis into a global one. Or maybe not. Over the last week the value of the Turkish lira collapsed by more than 20 percent, shocking financial markets.
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In a related story, The Irish Times reported that Turkey’s economic crisis poses a threat to European banks with business in the country. Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit, France’s BNP Paribas, Dutch bank ING and Britain’s HSBC are the most exposed to Turkey and vulnerable to its free-falling currency. Analysts see as manageable even a worst case scenario which they deem unlikely at present – under which these banks would be forced to write off completely their local operations or exit the country.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of backing down in a standoff with the U.S. that rattled markets. As investors worry about Turkey sliding toward a full-blown financial crisis, the big question now is how far the pain may spread, Bloomberg News reported. “I call out to those in the United States. It is a shame. You are trading a strategic NATO ally for a pastor,” Erdogan said Saturday during a rally in the Black Sea port of Ordu, referring to the U.S. decision to sanction Turkey for its imprisonment of an American priest.
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The longer Turkish policy makers wait to stem the lira’s precipitous slide, the bigger the toll on the already fragile economy, Bloomberg News reported. The cost of insuring the nation’s debt against default climbed to a nine-year high as an almost 30 percent plunge in the exchange rate in 2018 threatens the finances of local firms that have gorged on foreign-currency loans. Turkish companies have foreign-exchange liabilities equal to about a third of the country’s gross domestic product, posing a serious threat to banks if the currency depreciation isn’t contained.
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Investors are watching closely to see whether Turkish banks will maintain access to the foreign funding they need to keep economic activity humming, as the economy is battered by U.S. sanctions, rating cuts, concern about a looming fine on a state bank and a plunging lira, Bloomberg News reported. Turkish lenders have a good record of foreign borrowing even at the height of a financial crisis and are strong enough to weather a slowdown, according to bank executives.
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As the plunging lira weighs on Turkish borrowers, the nation’s banks are proposing a quicker way of resolving loans that turn sour, Bloomberg News reported. In what would be the first such codified rules, the Banks Association of Turkey, which represents non-Islamic lenders, drew up a framework of principles for restructuring loans that exceed 50 million lira ($10.2 million), according to a copy of the document obtained by Bloomberg News. TBB, as the industry group is known, declined to comment.
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Steve Eisman, who predicted the collapse of subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis, is betting that Turkey’s economic troubles will also be a drag on two major European banks, Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and Italy’s UniCredit SpA, Bloomberg News reported. “Everybody likes me to call the next disaster," Eisman said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, before being asked about pockets of risk where he sees opportunities.
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Turkey’s banks are about to reveal the extent of the damage caused by the lira’s plunge and a surge in interest rates. As the country’s biggest lenders start reporting second-quarter results this week, investors will be scouring their balance sheets for clues into how they’re coping from a 22 percent slide in the currency this year that is knocking the ability of companies to repay their foreign debt, Bloomberg News reported. They’ll also be looking for signs on whether the highest borrowing costs in almost a decade have started to cool the economy.
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