Cities across South Africa are due to host parades for the country’s rugby team in coming days, following last weekend’s emphatic victory in the World Cup final in Japan. In financial markets, too, there were scenes of celebration on Monday after Moody’s elected not to downgrade the country’s debt to junk, the Financial Times reported.
For a quarter-century, South Africa has been able to count on an investment-grade rating from Moody’s Investors Service, Bloomberg News reported. Bond buyers lately may be forgiven for wondering why. Financial markets have been pricing in a downgrade for months, and the other two major rating companies have had South Africa at junk status for two years. Should Moody’s follow suit, the nation would suffer enormous financial consequences.
Fitch Ratings Ltd. said that while South Africa’s worsening debt forecasts don’t include the threats posed by the state taking on any of the embattled power utility’s 450 billion rand ($30 billion) of debt, any risks posed by this are reflected in the nation’s current credit assessment, Bloomberg News reported. Finance Minister Tito Mboweni presented a rapidly deteriorating outlook in his medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday, with gross government debt seen surging to 80.9% of gross domestic product in the 2028 fiscal year unless urgent action is taken.
South Africa unveiled a long-awaited plan to save its debt-stricken power utility, including exposing it to greater competition, lowering fuel costs, increasing renewable-energy output and selling non-core assets, Bloomberg News reported. A policy paper released by Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan envisions Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. relinquishing its almost century-old near-monopoly of the electricity industry.
Investors are prepared for the worst as the day of reckoning looms for Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the state-owned power utility seen by Goldman Sachs Group Inc as the biggest threat to the country’s economy, Bloomberg News reported. Yields on benchmark South African government notes are at their highest in three weeks, trumped only by junk-rated Nigeria, Turkey and Lebanon among 29 major emerging markets. Rand-denominated sovereign debt has lost 3% for dollar investors this half, the worst performance after Colombia and Argentina.
Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the state-owned South African utility that provides about 95% of the nation’s electricity, implemented power cuts on Wednesday amid maintenance problems, Bloomberg News reported. The rand weakened as investors fretted about the effect on economic growth. Power shortages have been a major constraint on output in Africa’s most industrialized economy. Protracted outages could cost the country its last investment-grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service, which is due to deliver its next assessment on Nov. 1.
South Africa has been promising for months to fix Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., the state power utility that’s drowning in debt, made record losses and is reliant on government bailouts to remain solvent, Bloomberg News reported. While little tangible progress has been evident so far, several key decisions are due to be taken this month. The utility, which provides about 95% of the country’s power, has been without a permanent CEO since Phakamani Hadebe quit in July.
Renaissance Capital, which has correctly predicted eight out of nine sovereign rating decisions in emerging Europe and the Middle East since May, is calling a downgrade to junk for South Africa next month, Bloomberg News reported. That view is at odds with the majority in the Bloomberg survey, but Renaissance Global Chief Economist Charles Robertson says South Africa’s fundamentals have deteriorated significantly since May, when Moody’s Investors Service affirmed its Baa3 rating. The next review is on Nov. 1.
South Africa’s Tongaat Hulett, which has been battling to restore investors’ confidence after announcing in April it would have to restate prior financial reports, has postponed its results statement for the latest full year, it said on Monday, Reuters reported. Audited financial statements for the year to March 31 will not now be available by the previously anticipated date of Oct. 31, Tongaat said in a statement, adding that it will update shareholders on a new release date on Nov. 18.
South Africa’s public debt could rise as high as 95% of gross domestic product by 2024 if the government doesn’t restructure the state-run utility Eskom and implement a workable growth plan, the Institute of International Finance said in report, Reuters reported. The report, released late on Wednesday, echoes a warning on Tuesday by the central bank about ballooning government debt, which has doubled from less than 30% of GDP before the 2008 global financial crisis to nearly 60%. The 95% estimate is the worst of four outlooks the IIF report laid out.