Mexico’s economy will expand 2% to 3% in 2025 with a fiscal deficit equivalent to 2.5% of gross domestic product, according to a government estimate published Wednesday, Bloomberg reported. Inflation will slow to 3.8% by the end of 2024 and 3.3% by year-end 2025, from the current 4.4%, according to the preliminary numbers for the draft budget from Mexico’s Finance Ministry. Growth is forecast at 2.5% to 3.5% this year, above the average estimate by economists.

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Mexico’s central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2021 in a split decision, finally joining a regional trend for monetary easing as inflation slows, Bloomberg News reported. The bank cut its key rate a quarter point to 11% on Thursday, as forecast by 26 of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Deputy governor Irene Espinosa voted to leave the rate unchanged, while the other four board members all backed the reduction, the bank said in its policy statement.
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Bank of Mexico Deputy Governor Omar Mejia argued in a podcast published on Wednesday that it is not premature to consider lowering the bank's benchmark interest rate, though he cautioned that any future cuts should remain restrictive, Reuters reported. The bank's interest rate currently stands at a historic high of 11.25%, and the monetary authority is set to meet later this month.
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Mexico’s headline inflation eased much more than expected earlier this month, reinforcing bets that central bankers in Latin America’s second-largest economy could soon join the region’s wave of interest rate cuts, Bloomberg News reported. Consumer prices rose 4.45% in the first half of February compared to the same period a year prior, down from 4.87% in late January, the national statistics institute reported Thursday. The reading was below all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey that had a 4.7% median estimate.
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The total financial debt of Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex totaled $106.8 billion at the end of last year, according to preliminary data released by the country's president on Wednesday, Reuters reported. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador revealed the debt data in a chart from a presentation on Pemex, one of the world's most indebted oil companies, at his regular government press conference. The presentation was dated Feb. 20. It was not immediately clear whether the figure he cited will be included in Pemex's quarterly financial results expected next week.
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Bonds of Petroleos Mexicanos declined on Monday after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the firm’s credit score further into junk territory, saying the state oil company would be near default without support from the Mexican government, Bloomberg News reported. Pemex’s notes due in 2030 fell as much as 2.9 cents on the dollar to 84.6 cents, according to Trace data compiled by Bloomberg. The extra yield investors demand to hold Pemex’s debt due in about six years over the Mexican sovereign widened more than 60 basis points to 4.93 percentage points.
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Mexican lender Unifin has concluded its bankruptcy proceedings, the company said in a filing on Monday, following the approval of its plan to restructure debts by a local court, Reuters reported. Unifin's business model focuses on offering specialized financing to companies, as well as car loans. In 2022, a court approved Unifin's voluntary application for declaration of bankruptcy, a move the firm said would help it protect assets and hold talks with creditors. The lender's last published quarterly results from the second quarter of 2022 showed financial liabilities of around $4 billion.
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Mexico’s economy slowed more than forecast in the fourth quarter on waning exports and household consumption, fueling bets the nation’s central bank will start interest rate cuts in coming months, Bloomberg News reported. Gross domestic product expanded 0.1% on a quarterly basis, less than the 0.3% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. From a year earlier, it grew 2.4%, below the 3% median forecast, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by Mexico’s national statistics institute. For for the full year of 2023, Mexico’s economy expanded 3.1%.
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Unifin Financiera SAB de CV has submitted a restructuring deal before a Mexican bankruptcy court that will turn control over to creditors and infuse the lender with government financing, Bloomberg News reported. A judge in Mexico City is weighing the plan, which the company filed last week after winning support from a majority of creditors. A Unifin representative confirmed the submission of the plan to the court. Unifin earned their backing after sweetening the offer for unsecured debt holders — including those with $2.4 billion of foreign bonds.
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Mexico's antitrust authority said on Wednesday it was investigating the country's freight rail transportation market amid government plans to build out railway infrastructure, Reuters reported. Without mentioning any companies by name, the antitrust watchdog Cofece said there were elements suggesting the "absence of competitive conditions" in the industry. Mexico's rail sector, which moves a quarter of the total merchandise transported by land, is dominated by Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Grupo Mexico's transport unit.
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