Chile

Chilean President Gabriel Boric embarks on his first trip to China with an ambitious agenda that seeks deals to make the country’s economy more efficient and help it develop beyond its traditional commodities exporter role, Bloomberg News reported. “We want to move toward a new stage that includes investments in the country that help us improve productivity,” Chile International Economic Relations Undersecretary Claudia Sanhueza said in an interview ahead of Boric’s first trip to the Asian country next week.

Chile’s economic activity posted its biggest monthly drop since May as services declined, pushing one of Latin America’s richest nations toward recession and paving the way for more big interest rate cuts, Bloomberg News reported. The Imacec index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.5% in August from July, compared to the median estimate for a 0.2% gain from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It matched the 0.5% decline recorded in May. From a year prior, the index dropped 0.9%, the central bank reported on Monday.

Chile’s finance minister said the job of stabilizing the nation’s economy following a period of high inflation and overheated expansion is nearly complete as consumer price pressures wane, Bloomberg News reported. The annual inflation rate is about third of what it was a year ago and will continue declining to 4% in December, Mario Marcel said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview from London, where he is meeting business executives as part of the Chile Day investors event. That consumer price level would be just above the central bank’s 3% target.

Chile's central bank on Wednesday lowered the top end of its estimate for the country's economic performance in 2023, saying it now forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) to show no growth in the most optimistic scenario, Reuters reported. The monetary authority previously expected an economic expansion of as much as 0.25% this year. It maintained the lower end of its GDP forecast at a contraction of 0.5%. The lowered estimate accounts for the impact of operational issues that have hit mining production in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, in recent months, the central bank said.

Chile’s central bank sees its policy outlook largely unchanged by a drop in the peso and the potential inflation impact from recent devastating floods, the institution’s vice president said in an interview, Bloomberg News reported. Chile’s monetary easing, combined with doubts over the Chinese economy that’s a key buyer of the country’s commodities and hawkishness of the Federal Reserve have weighed on the currency, Pablo Garcia said from Jackson Hole, where central bankers gathered for a global symposium hosted by the Fed.

Chile’s economy shank less than forecast in the second quarter as growth in the mining industry softened the blow from a prolonged retail slump on the eve of interest rate cuts, Bloomberg News reported. Gross domestic product fell 0.3% in the April-June period from the prior three months, less than the -0.6% median forecast of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. From a year ago, the economy dropped 1.1%, the central bank reported Friday. Meanwhile, GDP growth in the first quarter was revised to 0.4%, half of the original 0.8% increase.

When global inflation surged in 2021, many of Latin America’s central bankers were the first to raise interest rates, moving months before the Federal Reserve began tightening. Recalling how hyperinflation topped 3,000% in some countries in the 1980s, central-bank economists from Brasília to Lima to Mexico City knew all too well the damage that soaring prices could cause. Now, Latin America is again at the forefront of the cycle, cutting rates as inflation comes back down, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Chile's central bank could consider interest rate cuts of 75 or 100 basis points at its next meetings, minutes from the board's July meeting showed on Monday, while also cautioning that inflation remained high, Reuters reported. The bank's board voted unanimously in July to cut the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 10.25%, although some board members expressed concern about the move, according to the minutes.

Chile's benchmark interest rate will likely come down to between 7.75% and 8% by the end of the year, as expected by analysts, the country's central bank chief said on Thursday, Reuters reported. Chile's central bank was one of the first in Latin America to cut interest rates during the current monetary policy cycle, slashing the rate from 11.25% to 10.25% at the end of July. However, the 100-basis-point cut is not indicative of future rate moves in Chile, central bank chief Rosanna Costa cautioned, speaking at an event.

Chile’s annual inflation eased broadly in line with forecasts in July, a month that ended with the central bank delivering a larger-than-expected interest rate cut and indicating more big reductions to come, Bloomberg News reported. Consumer prices rose 6.5% from a year prior, just above the 6.4% median estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Monthly inflation stood at 0.4%, the national statistics institute reported on Tuesday. A closely-watched price gauge that excludes volatile items increased 8.5% in 12 months and 0.3% from June.