More Canadian firms see inflation easing over the next two years than in the previous quarter, while the business outlook fell to its lowest level since the pandemic, the Bank of Canada said on Monday in a third-quarter survey, Reuters reported. About a third of firms expect a recession over the coming year, the same level as the previous quarter, the survey said. The Bank of Canada has hiked rates 10 times since early 2022 to fight inflation but left rates at 5% at its Sept. 6 meeting, and noted the economy had entered a period of weaker growth. Its next policy decision is due on Oct. 25.
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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the inflation rate remains too high but there are clear signs that aggressive interest-rate hikes are reducing demand, Bloomberg News reported. Policymakers remain concerned that they aren’t seeing “downward momentum” in core inflation measures, Macklem told reporters Friday, adding that his governing council is focused on analyzing how a slowing economy will influence price pressures in the future.
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About 4,300 unionized workers went on strike at three General Motors plants in Canada on Tuesday, boosting pressure on the automaker grappling with a U.S. union work stoppage now in its fourth week, Reuters reported. The walkout by workers came after Canadian union Unifor said GM was "stubbornly refusing" to match the contract the labor union reached with Ford Motor, which offered wage increases of up to 25% in Canada.
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A Bank of Canada official said there’s a risk firms will continue to raise prices more frequently and more sharply, complicating efforts to bring inflation back to 2%, Bloomberg News reported. In a speech in Montreal, Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent said that while the bank sees signs that corporate pricing behavior is gradually returning to normal, it’s still not what it was before the pandemic and progress is slow. “If recent pricing behavior settles into a new normal, it could complicate our return to low, stable and predictable inflation,” he said on Tuesday.
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Current home prices in Canada can’t be justified if medium-term interest rates stay elevated, a former Bank of Canada official said, underscoring the risk to one of the country’s most important sectors, Bloomberg News reported. Paul Beaudry, who spent four years on the central bank’s rate-setting committee, said the outlook for the housing market remains highly dependent not only on the policy rate, but on longer-term fixed rates. If they don’t come down, “then it becomes much more difficult to support these valuations,” he said on BNN Bloomberg Television.
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The Canadian economy rebounded slightly last month but still saw little growth, backing a case for the central bank to keep rates on hold despite inflation remaining elevated, Bloomberg News reported. Preliminary data suggest gross domestic product edged up 0.1% in August, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa, as declines in the retail and oil and gas industries partly offset increases in the wholesale and finance sectors. That followed a flat GDP reading in July, which missed expectations for a 0.1% increase in a Bloomberg survey.
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Canada’s banking regulator said he’s concerned about the prevalence of ultra-long mortgages and that his agency is working with lenders to stem the ubiquity of such loans, Bloomberg News reported. The country’s banks have about C$250 billion ($185 billion) of mortgages with amortization periods — the length of time permitted to pay off the loan — that sit at 35 years or longer, according to Peter Routledge, the superintendent of financial institutions.
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The Kitchener-Waterloo Symphony said Thursday that it had filed for bankruptcy just days after canceling its 2023-24 season, leaving dozens of musicians and staff facing an uncertain future, the Global and Mail reported. The 78-year-old Southern Ontario symphony said earlier this week that it needed to raise $2-million immediately in order to keep operating, acknowledging that insolvency was a possible outcome. The organization confirmed it had filed for bankruptcy in a press release late Thursday afternoon.
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Canadian consumers appear to be quickly rolling back their spending as the Bank of Canada’s higher interest rates start to bite into more household budgets, Bloomberg News reported. Receipts for retailers dropped 0.3% in August, the first decline since March, according to an advance estimate from Statistics Canada released Friday. That followed a 0.3% increase a month earlier, which missed the median estimate of 0.4% in a Bloomberg survey. Sales rose in seven of the nine subsectors in July, and were led by increases at food and beverage retailers.
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Canadian autoworkers ratified a new labor agreement with Ford Motor Co. on Sunday, averting a threatened strike and potentially setting a precedent that could play out in the United Auto Workers' strike at automaker facilities in the U.S., the Associated Press reported. The new agreement raises base hourly pay for production workers by almost 20% over three years, and by more than 25% for trade workers, the Canadian autoworker union Unifor said. It also gives permanent workers a $10,000 bonus and adds a cost-of-living adjustment, a mechanism that adjusts wages in line with inflation.
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