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Inflation in Australia remained in retreat in the final quarter of last year, stoking the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting interest rates at its coming policy meeting in February, joining the global easing cycle, the Wall Street Journal reported. The consumer price index rose 0.2% in the fourth quarter and by 2.4% from a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had expected the CPI to rise 0.3% in the quarter and 2.5% from a year ago. Trimmed mean inflation, which is the RBA’s preferred measure, rose 0.5% in the quarter.
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Australia’s quarterly inflation data this week may be key to whether the Reserve Bank finally embarks on a monetary easing cycle soon, and in turn, help decide the timing of an election due by May 17, Bloomberg News reported. While money markets are pricing about an 80% chance the RBA will cut the cash rate at its Feb. 17-18 meeting, much depends on price data scheduled for release on Wednesday. Economists expect the trimmed mean inflation — the more closely-watched gauge less affected by the impact of recent government rebates — to have eased to 3.3%, a three-year low.
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Australian building approvals were weaker than expected in November, denting hopes of a big recovery in housing supply to meet surging immigration, the Wall Street Journal reported. The total number of dwellings approved fell 3.6% in November to 14,998, following a 5.2% rise in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Economists had expected approvals to drop 0.9% over the month.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia is preparing to deal with the fallout resulting from a major international trade war in the coming years, but the central bank’s deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, said it’s best to avoid prejudging the consequences for Australia, the Wall Street Journal reported. The impact that higher tariffs around the world will have on Australia’s inflation is “ambiguous,” in large part because it depends on a far wider set of considerations than the imposition of U.S. trade restrictions alone, Hauser told a meeting of economists on Wednesday.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold as expected on Tuesday, but said it is gaining confidence that inflation is on track to sustainably return to the target band, the Wall Street Journal reported. The official cash rate was kept at 4.35%, where it has stood for over a year. “Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and while the level of aggregate demand still appears to be above the economy’s supply capacity, that gap continues to close,” the RBA’s policy-setting board said in a statement.
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