Inflation in New Zealand softened by more than expected in the three months through June, raising the prospect that the official cash rate could be cut as soon as next month, the Wall Street Journal reported. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in the second quarter of this year, and by 3.3% from the same period a year earlier, Stats NZ said Wednesday. The annual rise was lower than the 3.6% increase expected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has turned more dovish recently as the South Pacific economy struggles to emerge from a postpandemic slump.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate steady at 5.50% on Wednesday, staying in what central bank Gov. Adrian Orr likes to call watch-worry-and-wait mode, the Wall Street Journal reported. Still, the RBNZ’s cautious narrative softened somewhat amid an admission that inflation pressures are starting to ease. “Restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation, with the committee expecting headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range in the second half of this year,” the central bank said in a statement.

New Zealand’s economy exited recession with modest expansion in the first quarter, Bloomberg News reported. Gross domestic product gained 0.2% from the previous quarter, when it declined 0.1%, Statistics New Zealand said Thursday in Wellington. Economists expected 0.1% growth. GDP rose 0.3% from the year-earlier quarter, beating the 0.2% estimate. The economy is struggling as the Reserve Bank keeps its key interest rate at 5.5%, the highest since 2008, to bring inflation back under control.

New Zealand’s central bank expects inflation to continue to slow but said it needs more time to be certain. Good progress is being made in bringing inflation back to the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target band, chief economist Paul Conway said in a speech Wednesday in Wellington. Increasing spare capacity in the economy and declining inflation expectations are likely to further reduce price pressures, while “sticky” domestic costs are also expected to eventually abate. “These processes could occur more quickly or slowly than currently projected,” he said.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has confirmed it will apply new restrictions on mortgage lending in a bid to reduce potential financial instability risks stemming from high household debt and rising home prices, the Wall Street Journal reported. The debt-to-income settings, which will apply from July 1, will allow banks to lend up to 20% of residential loans to owner occupiers with DTI ratios of over six and to investors with a DTI ratio of over seven, the central bank said on Tuesday.

New Zealand manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of recovery in April, despite the economy’s lengthening recession, according to the latest BNZ — BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index, the Wall Street Journal reported. The seasonally adjusted PMI for April was 48.9, up from 46.8 in March, although still lower than the 49.1 recorded in February. The sector has now been in contraction for 14 consecutive months.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has limited scope to cut interest rates this year and shouldn’t ease policy until it’s sure inflation will return to target, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Bloomberg News reported. "Inflation is likely to be persistent,” the OECD said in its Economic Surveys: New Zealand 2024 report published Monday in Wellington.