Lebanon

Crisis-ridden Lebanon finally has a government again and top of its agenda will be whether to repay a Eurobond maturing in six weeks. After lawmakers passed the 2020 budget on Monday, the new cabinet’s next major decision will be what to do about the $1.2 billion of bonds due on March 9, Bloomberg News reported. The team of 20, led by Prime Minister Hassan Diab, a computing-engineering professor, will meet this week with nationwide protests continuing, the central bank’s foreign reserves falling and the diaspora inflows that have kept the economy afloat for decades slowing to a trickle.

Lebanese lawmakers approved a 2020 budget plan with a crucial Eurobond payment weeks away, leaving it to the new government to decide on whether to pay creditors or save what’s left of the country’s reserves, Bloomberg News reported. The fiscal program passed on Monday by a vote of 49 to 13, with eight abstentions. The legislature approved the budget that envisages a 6% deficit, a far cry from a goal set by Lebanon’s former government to bring it close to zero. It includes no new taxes.

Lebanon's new government must decide whether to seek help from the International Monetary Fund to help ease its financial crisis, the International New York Times reported on a Reuters story. Any programme is likely to require Lebanon to agree to measures ranging from increasing taxes to fighting corruption. Based mainly on previous IMF recommendations, here are some steps Lebanon might have to take as part of any deal: Draw up a medium-term plan to fill Lebanon's yawning fiscal deficit and bring public debt down to sustainable levels.

Lebanon’s sky-high bond yields and credit default swaps may start to dip if a new government unveiled this week can ease concerns about a sovereign default, Bloomberg News reported. Investors are watching a $1.2 billion Eurobond, payment for which is due on March 9. Its price has risen this week due to the formation of the government, ending a period of caretaker rule since protesters forced the resignation of the prime minister in October. But it’s still trading at just 84 cents on the dollar, equating to an annualized yield of around 170%.

Lebanon’s new government faces huge upcoming debt repayments and a currency peg at breaking point, but it may already have run out of the hard cash firepower it needs to tackle these problems, Reuters reported. The heavily indebted country faces hefty bond repayments coming up in March and April, when $1.34 billion and $842 million of interest and principal respectively come due. Analysts expect the central bank to be able to foot the bill, for now, though some in Beirut believe a rescheduling or restructuring is preferable.

Lebanese authorities will be reluctant to announce a default on debt payments until a functioning government is formed, pushing back any plans for a bond restructuring to later this year, according to Oxford Economics, Bloomberg News reported. Investors can reap a 13% return by buying Lebanon’s dollar-denominated note due March 9, London-based strategist Nafez Zouk said in an emailed note. While there’s an 85% probability those bonds will be repaid at maturity, dwindling foreign-currency reserves mean a default may still be announced in the second half of 2020, Zouk said.

Lebanon’s precarious finances mean the crisis-hit country looks likely to default on its debt in some way and could even launch a Cyprus-style grab for savers’ bank accounts, Fitch’s top sovereign analyst said, Reuters reported. Lebanon’s debt problems have jumped back into focus this week after reports emerged of a bid by authorities there to try and delay some of this year’s bond repayments.

Lebanon’s government has been warned by rating companies that a proposed Eurobond swap with local banks would be considered a “selective default,” a person familiar with the matter said, Bloomberg News reported. The Finance Ministry sent a letter to the central bank Wednesday asking it to hold off on the deal, according to the person, who asked not be identified because the information isn’t public.

Bank Audi SAL received several expressions of interest to buy its Egyptian unit, according to an official from the bank, Bloomberg News reported. Lebanon’s biggest lender by assets held informal talks with institutions that are seeking to expand their operations in Egypt or enter in the north African country, the official said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Bank Audi hasn’t made a decision, the official said. Arabiya television was first to report that the bank plans to sell the unit as part of a restructuring.

Lebanon’s sovereign debt is probably going to be restructured in a way that hurts neither the economy nor depositors, and foreign holders will be repaid, the banking association head said on Monday, Reuters reported. Salim Sfeir also said he did not foresee problems with a proposal for Lebanese banks to swap their holdings in a maturing March Eurobond of $1.2 billion for longer dated notes, describing such swaps as “common practice”.