This spring, France will vote in a presidential election that has raised questions over the country’s continued use of the euro, The Wall Street Journal reported. National Front candidate Marine Le Pen has said she would pull her country, one of the European Union’s founding nations, out of the common currency. That has sent yields on French bonds climbing to their highest level against German debt since 2012. It has also hit the bonds of weaker European economies as questions resurface over the euro project. But for now, the currency itself appears relatively unmoved by the threat.
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If Marine Le Pen has her way, the French will soon pay for their baguettes with francs, not euros, The New Zealand Herald reported on an Associated Press story. The presidential candidate from the anti-EU, anti-immigration National Front party is all about national sovereignty and independence. She wants France to take control of its money, subject to a referendum that would lead France out of the European Union and its shared currency. But how would France pull off a euro exit, or "Frexit"? No country has left the euro since its creation in 1999.
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The rise of populist parties in France and Italy is awakening an old fear in Europe: that public debt may be forcibly switched back into former national currencies if countries exit the monetary union, Bloomberg News reported. The concern is reminiscent of the depths of the euro region debt crisis, when doubts about Greece’s ability to meet its obligations sent investors scrambling to offload exposure -- and dust off their legal textbooks.
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France isn’t Greece. But as investors worry about the impending presidential election, French bonds have shifted from trading like haven German bunds to be treated more like troubled Italian debt, The Wall Street Journal reported. The reassessment of France—from part of the eurozone’s financial core toward its periphery—shows the heightened concern about far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen winning the presidency. The effects on trading were visible even as fears about France receded this week.
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Remaining in the eurozone is France’s best protection over the long term, the country’s central bank governor said Tuesday, firmly pushing back against nationalist political sentiment that threatens to yank his country out of the 19-country currency bloc and upend nearly 70 years of European integration, The Wall Street Journal reported. François Villeroy de Galhau said that differences in borrowing costs, or the spread, between France and Germany have narrowed sharply since the introduction of the euro.
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The premium investors are demanding to hold French over German 10-year debt has been given a fresh kick higher in the last few minutes after Francois Fillon said he would not take himself out of the running to be the country’s next president, the Financial Times reported. France’s 10-year yield gap with Germany – a measure of perceived riskiness of its debt – is now at its highest level since November 2012, swelling to 76 basis points and the widest margin since the immediate aftermath of the eurozone’s debt crisis.
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The drop in French government bonds has accelerated this morning, pushing the premium investors demand to hold its bonds over Germany’s to the highest in three years, as the favourite for the country’s presidency is hit by a swirl of allegations over payments made to his family, the Financial Times reported.
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Fewer French businesses failed last year than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, the latest sign that the euro area’s second-largest economy is strengthening, a report published Tuesday showed. A total of 57,844 French companies filed for protection for creditors, entered receivership or went bankrupt in 2016, according to Altares, which analysis corporate data, Bloomberg News reported. That’s down 8.3 percent from 2015. The number of jobs threatened by insolvencies fell 15 percent to 200,000.
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The premium investors demand to own two-year French debt over similarly maturing German bonds climbed to its highest level since the 2013 Taper Tantrum on Monday, as the country’s election looms, the Financial Times reported. The difference between yields on two-year French and German sovereign bonds climbed to 25 basis points on Monday, up from 18.5 bps on Friday and a low of less than 1 bp touched after the US election last November. Yields on the French note climbed 5 bps on Monday, compared to a 2 bp drop in German ones.
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The restructuring of private equity-backed French clothing retailer Vivarte has been labelled a “brutal” example of “Anglo-Saxon ultra-liberalism” by nationalist politicians looking to score points ahead of the presidential election in May, the Financial Times reported. The comments by the French far-right National Front party led by Marine Le Pen highlight how corporate activity in France threatens to be affected by national politics this year.
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