The race to vaccinate Americans is likely to bring an end to the pandemic in the months ahead, but the outlook for the U.S. economy is far less certain. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Board delivered its Monetary Policy Report to Congress. While providing statistics suggesting that U.S. businesses could rebound when the pandemic ends, the report noted significant risks of business bankruptcies as well as a steep drop in commercial real estate prices.

The torrid pace of bankruptcy filings by U.S. businesses has ebbs and flows, but the tide is not receding. The economy continues to struggle under the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic.

There has not been any substantial change in the fundamentals of the business cycle and Washington has been unable to produce another round of stimuli. So, we need to be careful about drawing conclusions from any short term variance in the rate of bankruptcy filings.

Since the end of the first quarter of 2020, bankruptcy professionals have been planning for a substantial increase in business bankruptcies. The newest statistics tell us that the wait is over. These bankruptcy filings follow the sustained economic contraction rooted in the COVID pandemic. But it would be too simplistic to say that COVID is the sole cause of this trend. Most of the businesses that have filed faced other challenges, such as heavy debt burdens, deteriorating markets or strategic missteps.

The number of so-called mega-bankruptcies filed during the first half of the year tells only part of the story. The pain is not just at the top, but spreads across multiple sectors of the economy. Overall, business bankruptcy filings are 30% higher than they have been at any time during the last 5 years. And, with attempts to re-start the economy already sputtering, the news during the second half could be worse.

Beauty Brands, LLC, along with two subsidiaries and affiliates, has filed a petition for relief under chapter 11 in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Lead Case No. 19-10031).

Angel Medical Systems, Inc., a developer of medical devices based in Eatontown, NJ, has filed a petition for relief under Chapter 11 in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Case No. 18-12903).

White Eagle Asset Portfolio, LP, has filed a petition for relief under Chapter 11 in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Lead Case No. 18-12808).

Checkout Holding Corp. (dba Catalina Marketing), along with ten affiliates and subsidiaries, has filed a petition for relief under chapter 11 in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Lead Case No. 18-12794).

interTouch Holdings LLC and its affiliate, interTouch TopCo LLC, have both filed petitions for relief under chapter 11 in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Lead Case No. 18-12772).

Argos Therapeutics, Inc. (f/k/a Merix Bioscience, Inc.) has filed a petition for relief under chapter 11 in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Case No. 18-12714).