The US appears likely to enter a default cycle in the near future, according to senior fund managers and economists. A recent bout of M&A transactions involving chapter 11 cases point in the same direction. Taking deals involving bankruptcy cases as a proxy for distressed M&A, 16 such transactions were announced in the US in Q1, up 14.3 percent year on year, according to Dealogic. The aggregate value of those deals reached US$1.8 billion, a gain of 76 percent from the same period in 2023.